Yearly, hundreds of winter-weary souls collect at Gobbler’s Knob on February 2nd in quest of spring. As legend has it, if Punxsutawney Phil rises from his tree stump and sees his shadow, it is six extra weeks of winter. No shadow? Early spring.
Whether or not or not anybody really believes that this groundhog – or any groundhog, together with New York rival Staten Island Chuck – can predict the climate is up for debate, however skepticism apart, his devoted membership emerge each February to assist Phil carry out his prophetic duties.
However simply how correct are his predictions in any case?
An NBC knowledge evaluation (sure, actually) discovered that the reply depends upon your space.
Trying at his last 50 predictions, Phil has predicted winter most of the time – 36 instances, or roughly three out of 4 predictions. Nationwide, he has solely been proper 23 of these instances, giving him a 46% accuracy fee.
Domestically, Phil’s accuracy fee can swing from 44% to 54% – that means you will have extra luck predicting the subsequent six weeks by flipping a coin.
Excellent news for anybody prepared for spring, as Phil predicted six more weeks of winter for 2023.