After which there was one.
Only a single county amongst New York’s 62 remained at excessive threat for group COVID unfold in the CDC’s Friday replace, a marked reversal from this time final month when all however eight Empire State counties merited that designation.
The doubtful distinction is owned by Nassau County, with neighboring Suffolk County — the one different New York county in the CDC’s high-risk stage every week in the past — shifting from excessive to low threat in the well being company’s newest replace.
Regionally, Lengthy Island has the second-highest rolling new case common (31.1 per 100,000) behind New York Metropolis (31.6), however Nassau County is dramatically growing the speed with its second-in-the-state-highest rolling common of 35.5 new instances per 100,000 residents. That is behind solely Manhattan (38.5) on that metric.
Nassau’s hospitalization numbers, although, its new admission fee per 100,000 (12.4) and share of inpatient beds in use by COVID sufferers (5%) are notably greater than these in Manhattan (8.5 and 4%, respectively) and are the extra crucial indicators from a public well being perspective, therefore the heightened alert stage.
Aside from all 5 boroughs and Tioga and Broome counties in the state’s Southern Tier area, the remainder of New York has been downgraded to CDC’s low-risk tier.
The company assesses threat based mostly on the identical three metrics New York Metropolis does, although it took well being officers in the 5 boroughs longer to downgrade the alert stage to medium than it did the CDC. That transition simply got here this week.
Why the discrepancy? There might be different reporting elements at play. The CDC assesses threat on the state or county stage, for instance, whereas the town bases its evaluation on citywide stats.
Variations in knowledge stream and communication may play a task.
Both manner, consultants seem to agree it is obvious that each one indicators are pointing in the fitting course for New York Metropolis because it emerges from this newest pandemic risk.
The most recent wave has been largely blamed on the omicron subvariant BA.2.12.1, which has been mentioned to be at the very least 25% extra transmissible than the pressure that got here earlier than it, omicron’s BA.2. BA.2 was regarded as at the very least 30% extra contagious than the unique omicron, which, as all of America and the globe noticed this previous winter, was essentially the most infectious COVID pressure thus far on the time it emerged.
Hospitalizations elevated, although to a lesser and extra manageable diploma than they did throughout earlier waves related to omicron and delta.
Comparable patterns performed out throughout the state at different occasions over the previous few months, although the downstate area that features New York Metropolis possible skilled that variant unfold sooner than different states and main metro areas, based mostly on the U.S. spots nonetheless grappling with excessive common COVID case and hospitalization charges.
Nationally, 392 — or 12.2% of — United States counties are thought-about excessive threat for group COVID unfold by the CDC. That is up about two share factors in the final week, with the variety of medium-risk counties climbing by 1.58%.
The majority of American counties — 56.9% of them — are at low threat, in line with the CDC, although that quantity has plunged for the reason that company’s final weekly replace.
4 of 21 New Jersey counties are nonetheless thought-about excessive threat by the CDC, although that quantity is down by eight for the reason that replace two weeks in the past. Connecticut, in the meantime, is all inexperienced aside from New Haven, Litchfield and Middlesex counties.