Fresh public opinion poll, which in the first half of October, it held a pool of organizations – the Center “Social monitoring” Ukrainian Institute of social studies, KIIS and the Sociological group “Rating”, – says nothing about who will be the winner of the upcoming presidential election.
And can’t speak as to the vote, five months, and a full list of candidates is still not known. But it is possible to draw some conclusions about whose success is unlikely.
With high probability, a place in the second round staked Yulia Tymoshenko. Yes, it is shame for themselves stuck in their eternal thirteen percent support among all respondents, but it sure thirteen percent and almost two times more than the nearest competitor. They still need to work hard to reach her level, let alone overtake, the time is running out. Whether it will keep the first position up to election day? Optional. It is already clear to voters, the surprise of it not waiting for resource for the growth of support is almost exhausted. Perhaps that will catch up with those who tend to put on the leader, whoever they may be.
In the second round, the most convenient enemy for all becomes Petro Poroshenko, and this is perhaps news. It is called, in one gate, with a double-digit gap, take out and Tymoshenko (30,7% vs. 15.1%), Hrytsenko (33,1% vs. 14.3%). Even Boyko, which is easy tapping and Julia (30,3% against 16.8%), and Anatoly Stepanovich (31,3% vs. 15.9%), in tandem with the President looks a little better than (20,2% versus 20%), and this, sorry, even indecent: not quickly suddenly became good, and the President increasingly unacceptable to voters. Although the absolute level of support Poroshenko had not changed, which in itself is sad for his supporters, the news, the quality of these 7-8% worse. If once they seemed to start indicator, followed by a crackdown, it now begins to spread a sense of doom, that, in fact, the simulation of the second round shows.
From the main group of pursuers Tymoshenko finally fell off Andriy Sadovy (2.5%) and Vadim Rabinovich (3.5 per cent). Oleg Lyashko (5.7 percent) is also above his head is clearly not going to jump. Active part of the campaign still to come, commercials, billboards, but these figures do not hide the fact that the presidential race for them only the necessary leadership exposure before the parliamentary. And if not much you need them, the voters, and even more so, they can sense these things.
Thus, non-zero chances of getting to the second round remain Anatoly Gritsenko (7%), Petro Poroshenko (7%) and Yuriy Boyko (6.9 per cent) and in the second round, win it all Tymoshenko and Hrytsenko and Anatoliy Stepanovich yet, according to the state of public opinion at the beginning of October, wins and Yulia Vladimirovna (26.9 percent vs 24.8 percent).
The picture that emerged five months before the election, can significantly change two of the characters, which is generally not clear what to expect: Sviatoslav Vakarchuk (4,9%) and Vladimir Zelensky (7.6 per cent). It is difficult to calculate in advance how high is able to throw artists only one public application for participation in the race. What is more, the pros or cons lack of political sophistication and the presence of glossy biographies of the “star boys” have such candidates? The hunger for new faces is very strong, so that a protest vote for good actors against bad politicians gained a landslide? And as these new individuals is with a new sense, or not even bother? Whose chances of participation Vakarchuk Zelensky and buried even before the first round?
By the way, Svyatoslav Vakarchuk, trying to say something very right about politics, it looks terribly boring: to effectively say something meaningful, it should still be a politician. In our circus situation expanse Zelensky. I wonder who he’s, if anything, will meet in the second round? Yet, it turns out, with Yulia Tymoshenko. And the funny thing is that he could be for her, because she was used to dealing with politicians, and even old school. And by the way, even they she has never managed to win the presidential election.