Sanctions against Iran: the concerns that the oil might come back

Sanctions contre l’Iran: les inquiétudes sur le pétrole pourraient revenir

Photo: Atta Kenare Agence France-Presse
The maintenance of the global supply could prove to be very difficult, warned the international energy Agency.

The concerns about supply, world oil would come back soon with u.s. sanctions against Iran, warned the international energy Agency (IEA) on Friday.

In its monthly report on oil, the agency observes a “return to calm the market,” but believes it ” could not last.” “When the oil sanctions against Iran take effect, possibly in conjunction with production problems elsewhere, the maintenance of the global supply could prove to be very difficult,” warns she.

The outlook for the market could be “much less quiet” than they are today, writes the agency based in Paris.

The United States has asked all countries to stop entirely their imports of iranian oil by 4 November if they want to avoid sanctions. The last train from sanctions had led to a fall of crude oil exports to 1.2 million barrels per day (mbd), but “this time the impact could be even more severe,” according to the report.

The IEA notes, however, that, for the moment, concerns over supply are over, even if it is a state of decline-surprise of the production of saudi arabia in July and she declined 110,000 barrels per day (b/d) to 10.35 mbd, with a decline of exports. The kingdom was, however, recently committed to increasing its extractions to limit the increase in current. This decrease was, however, offset by a higher production of the united arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Nigeria.

Demand side, the IEA has slightly revised upwards (+110 000 b/d) its growth forecasts for next year, but warned that significant uncertainties weighing on this forecast. Trade wars may particularly worsen and lead to an economic slowdown and oil demand lower.