Turkey, pumpkin pie, and NFL soccer. Thanksgiving Day is right here and a three-pack of video games kick off NFL Week 12 motion. Like many Individuals, certainly one of your favourite vacation traditions could also be betting on the video games. Within the spirit of giving, we’ve put within the work, did the analysis, and now provide up our Turkey Day picks.
Let’s check out our Thanksgiving NFL best bets, picks, and ATS predictions.
Thanksgiving NFL Best Bets, Picks, ATS Predictions
Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions
Detroit has in some way earned a popularity as a tricky residence staff, particularly on Thanksgiving, however there actually isn’t something factual behind such a declare. The Lions have really solely lined certainly one of their final 13 Thursday video games as underdogs, three of their final 17 Week 12 video games, and 5 of their final 18 November video games. The Lions have misplaced 4 straight on Thanksgiving, in addition to 13 of their final 17 on the vacation, and have additionally not lined this unfold as a Thanksgiving canine in over 15 seasons. With a first-time head coach on a brief prep week and an unsure quarterbacking state of affairs, it appears rather a lot to ask Detroit to show issues round by this afternoon.
ANDY DALTON ON 4TH & 11.
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) November 21, 2021
Chicago already dealt with Detroit as soon as this season, incomes a 24-14 victory again in Week 4. Whereas Justin Fields will probably miss this one, Chicago nonetheless boasts the league’s sixth best speeding assault, which is able to face off towards the NFL’s second worst rush protection right here. The Bears’ lead again, David Montgomery, punished Detroit within the first assembly with 106 yards and two touchdowns on 23 carries, a part of 188 complete speeding yards Chicago amassed that day.
Chicago has lined 4 of its final 5 towards sub .500 opposition, in addition to 4 of its final 5 on the street towards groups with dropping residence information. They’ve additionally solely dropped eight of their final 36 street video games ATS when dealing with groups that common lower than 6.0 passing yards per try. Keep in mind, we may probably see Tim Boyle, who solely mustered 77 yards via the air towards Cleveland in his first begin final weekend. Chicago possesses the league’s eleventh ranked cross protection and would current comparable difficulties for the Lions’ backup.
Bears vs. Lions Prediction
Search for the Bears to maneuver to 5-2 ATS of their final seven journeys to Detroit with a Thanksgiving victory.
Our ATS Decide: Chicago Bears -3
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Dallas Cowboys
Dallas slipped up on the street at Kansas Metropolis final weekend, however they now return residence the place they’re 4-1 SU and ATS this season, with all 4 of these victories coming by double-digits. The truth is, Dallas is 6-1 ATS in its final seven residence video games courting again to final season, successful all six by greater than this unfold.
This recreation is of additional significance to Dallas, at the moment the worst of the 4 division leaders within the NFC, because the Cowboys head on the street for 3 straight video games after this one. Fortunately, they’ve carried out properly as favorites, overlaying 5 of their final six total and 4 of their final 5 at residence. Dallas has additionally responded properly after a poor outing in latest tries. America’s Staff has lined 4 straight after a SU loss and 4 of its final 5 after an ATS defeat.
Las Vegas might have absolutely descended into collapse mode. The Raiders stayed related for a short time following Jon Gruden’s departure, however have misplaced three straight video games out of their bye week and are actually a minimum of a half recreation behind 10 different groups within the AFC. It’s onerous to think about a man who has by no means been a head coach earlier than having a robust plan for 3 days of prep plus journey right here.
— Communicate For Your self (@SFY) November 24, 2021
If this staff has really stop, we may see a continuation of some already ugly traits on this one. The Raiders are simply 3-7 ATS after their final 10 SU losses and 1-4 ATS after their final 5 ATS defeats. When a SU loss has come by 15 factors or extra, the Raiders have solely lined two of their final eight follow-up efforts. TheRaiders have additionally lined simply two of its final 11 video games after permitting 31 or extra factors prior and are simply 1-5 ATS in its final six video games after scoring 14 or fewer.
Raiders vs. Cowboys Prediction
Search for the Raiders to slide to 2-6 ATS of their final eight street video games as Dallas runs away with this one, very like Kansas Metropolis did with Vegas two weeks in the past.
Our ATS Decide: Dallas -7
Buffalo Payments vs. New Orleans Saints
It makes for a straightforward argument to get behind the Payments right here, in case you imagine they have been Tremendous Bowl favorites this time final week and now want the sport to make sure New England doesn’t open a 1.5 recreation lead within the AFC East. Nevertheless, we see extra purpose to again the Saints right here with a beneficiant serving to of factors at residence.
Be sure you take a look at a have a look at the best NFL Thanksgiving player prop picks.
For starters, Buffalo is just not enjoying good soccer of late. Throw out a pair division wins as 15 and 13.5-point favorites and the Payments haven’t gained a tricky recreation since early October after they beat the Chiefs. Their wins have largely come towards very poor speeding groups, whereas New Orleans is seventh within the league in speeding yards per recreation at residence.
Final week’s 40-29 loss at Philadelphia was the Saints’ first by greater than three factors as an underdog since Week 2 of the 2019 season. They’re really 35-17 ATS of their final 52 video games as underdogs, together with an 8-2 ATS run of their final 10 as residence underdogs. They’ve backed up 4 of their final 5 SU losses with a canopy of their subsequent outing and have lined six straight following an ATS defeat.
Trevor Siemian simply tossed it up for six 😳
— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) November 21, 2021
Sean Payton is 16-10 ATS with the Saints after permitting 35 or extra factors prior, together with a 5-1 ATS run within the staff’s final six after permitting 31 or extra. New Orleans has additionally rattled off 5 ATS victories in its final seven Thursday video games.
In the meantime, Buffalo is simply 5-11 SU and 5-10-1 ATS all-time versus the NFC South, together with 1-6 SU and 0-6-1 ATS when the Payments enter play off an ATS defeat. The Payments are simply 3-5 ATS since 1990 on Thursday nights, together with 0-4 ATS after enjoying a non-division opponent.
Payments vs. Saints Prediction
Search for New Orleans to gather its sixth straight cowl on this head-to-head and Sean McDermott to slip to 3-5 ATS with Buffalo after his staff permits 35 factors or extra in its earlier recreation.
Our ATS Decide: New Orleans +7